Tips for Feb 01 2018: U.S. crude oil production officially has surged above 10M bbl/day for the first time since 1970. Beating government forecasts by several months, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
- The EIA says the U.S. reached the milestone in November when output rose 4% from October. With the gains led by the usual producers of Texas, North Dakota and the Gulf of Mexico.
- WTI crude is trading at ~$64/bbl and has posted monthly gains for five straight months. Action that could encourage even more drilling.
“As oil prices rise, higher shale output is definitely on the market’s mind,” said Tomomichi Akuta. senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo.
Oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also rose in January from an eight-month low. As higher output from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia offset a further decline in Venezuela and strong compliance with a supply reduction pact, a Reuters survey found.
However, adherence by producers included in the deal to curb supply rose to 138 percent from 137 percent in December. The poll found, suggesting commitment is not wavering even as oil prices hit their highest level since 2014.
“OPEC nations realize that lower production would buoy oil prices and that it’s better for them,” Akuta added.
Oil prices are unlikely to advance much above $70 a barrel in 2018. With the market caught between the opposing forces of OPEC-led production cuts and surging U.S. output, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Oil prices initially slipped on Wednesday after U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that U.S. Crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.8 million barrels last week, after 10 straight weeks of declines. [EIA/S]
But prices rebounded on the back of a surprise 2 million-barrel drawdown in gasoline stocks, helping push up gasoline futures.
Tips for Feb 01 2018
Buy MCX Crude oil 16 Feb 2018 contract for the day of 01 Feb 2018. near 4112 stop loss 4092 target 4128 – 4154.
Sell MCX Gold 05 April 2018 contract for the day of 01 Feb 2018. near 29880 stop loss 30060 target 29800 – 29700.
Free MCX Silver Tips for the day of 01 Feb 2018, Sell 05 March 2018 Contract near 39300 with stop loss 39450 for the target of 39100 – 38900.